By Ryan Stieg
My favorite part of the year has arrived. It’s finally NCAA Tournament time again.
Before I get into that, let’s look back at last week. Things didn’t go well for me with my CCHA championship prediction and as a result, I did not get to eat corn dogs to celebrate National Corn Dog Day. That’s not a terrible penalty, but it was still disappointing. One day St. Thomas will make the NCAA Tournament, and I will have predicted it. One day.
Now looking ahead to this weekend, I’ll have to wait until Monday to earn a prize since the last games aren’t until Sunday and since none of the Monday prizes were edible, I’m going with Tater Day on Tuesday. I’ll have some sort of potato that day if the majority of predictions are correct. It’ll also be a great time to celebrate my beloved Moorhead Spuds winning back-to-back boys state hockey titles. Potato Power.
Looking at this year’s tournament, it’s going to be a tough one to predict as unlike previous years, there’s no true frontrunner. It’s also an even numbered year, which usually doesn’t go well for me. I was right about Quinnipiac winning it all in 2023 and Western Michigan winning it last year, but I was wrong in 2022 and 2024. Hopefully, things will go better this time for me.
Let’s get started. Here’s my picks for who will make it to Las Vegas and the 2026 Frozen Four. I’ll begin with the regional that’s the furthest east from the desert.
Worcester (Mass.) Regional
No. 1 seed Michigan State vs. No. 4 UConn
The Spartans are back in the tournament, but the question is can they get over the hump and get into the Frozen Four. The previous two seasons, MSU lost in the regional final to rival Michigan and then got upset in the first round by Cornell last year. The Spartans have a great goalie in Trey Augustine, a points machine in Porter Martone and a Hobey Baker Award finalist in Charlie Stramel, so they have the pieces to make a deep run. UConn is also back after just missing the Frozen Four last year. The Huskies are not as strong as last year, but they have some good scorers with Ryan Tattle, Joey Muldowney and Jake Richard. As much as I like UConn and its awesome Brass Bonanza goal song, I’m going with MSU here. The Spartans win 4-2.
No. 2 Dartmouth vs. No. 3 Wisconsin
The Big Green might be the surprise of the season as I don’t know many people who saw this team as a NCAA Tournament participant this year. Hayden Stavroff and Hank Cleaves are the Big Green’s big weapons with Stavroff being a Hobey finalist. If either of them gets hot Thursday, it could be a rough game for the Badgers. Speaking of Wisco, it’s back after missing out last season. The Badgers are led by Christian Fitzgerald, Quinn Finley and Gavin Morrissey, so they’re not quite as top heavy as the Big Green. As much as I like that Dartmouth is back on a national stage for the first time in 46 years, I’m going with Wisco. The Badgers win 4-3.
Regional Final
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
A huge Big Ten showdown for a trip to Vegas. The Badgers have had a good year and it’s been nice to see Mike Hastings bring the program to national prominence again, even though it may anger Mankato fans. However, I think this is the Spartans time and they finally make it out of the regionals. MSU wins 3-1.
Sioux Falls (S.D.) Regional
No. 1 seed North Dakota vs. No. 4 Merrimack
A college hockey blue blood vs.a team on a hot streak. Let’s start with the Fighting Hawks, who return to the tournament under first year coach Dane Jackson. Unlike the UND teams of previous years, this year’s squad actually looks like a Frozen Four contender. The Hawks are always good, but if fans are looking for national title number nine, this one might be the one to do it. UND has three guys who score a lot of goals (Ben Strinden, Will Zellers and Dylan James) and two guys with a lot of assists in Ellis Rickwood and Cole Reschny. They also have two solid goalies in Jan Spunar and Gibson Homer. Can the Warriors keep up? Well, they don’t have the big names that UND has, but Merrimack has five guys in double digits with goals. It also won four straight Hockey East Tournament games including big upsets of Providence, UMass and UConn, so it’s clear that the Warriors are confident. I think UND comes out on top though. The Fighting Hawks win 5-2.
No. 2 Providence vs. No. 3 Quinnipiac
The Friars are back again and they’re good. I don’t get to see a lot of east coast teams in person, but I watched Providence twice and it’s legit. They got a good 1-2 punch with John Mustard and Roger McQueen with Logan Sawyer adding a nice hook. Goaltending is also a strength with Jack Parsons and Philip Svedeback being a quality tandem. Meanwhile, the Bobcats return to the big stage for the sixth straight season. QU has a Hobey finalist in Ethan Wyttenbach as well as Antonin Verreault and Markus Vidicek and Chris Pelosi as other weapons. This game will be a fun one to watch and should come down to the wire, but I’m giving the edge to Providence. The Friars win 3-2.
Regional Final
North Dakota vs. Providence
Like I said earlier, UND is primed for a deep run. There’s a reason it’s a No. 1 seed and one of the favorites to win it all. At the same time, Providence is playing like the squad that won the national title back in 2015. I’m picking the Hawks, but it’s going to be a hard battle. UND wins 3-2.
Loveland (Colo.) Regional
No. 1 seed Western Michigan vs. No. 4 Minnesota State
On one bench, you have the defending national champs. Western lost Alex Bump and Tim Washe to the NHL, but Grant Slukynsky, Liam Valente and Owen Michaels are back. Star goalie Hampton Slukynsky also returns, so the Broncos are loaded again. Then on the other bench, there’s the Mavericks, who have won the CCHA for what feels like the umpteenth time. This isn’t your typical Mankato team though. It’s very defensively-focused squad thanks to goalie Alex Tracy and defenseman Evan Murr, and it isn’t as high-powered offensively as in previous years. I’m sure I’ll get hate from Mavs fans, but I think Western takes this one. The Broncos win 4-2.
No. 2 Denver vs. No. 3 Cornell
Denver is back and it’s an even numbered year, so that means good things for the Pioneers in the David Carle era. The Pios are a little under the radar this year as opposed to the last two years, but they’re still good, Eric Pohlkamp is one of the best defensemen around and he’s got three teammates to back him up in the points column as well as fellow defenseman Boston Buckberger (all-time great name, btw). Cornell, on the other hand, is trying to get its first Frozen Four bid since 2003. The Big Red are talented with three 30-point scorers, led by Jonathan Castagna, but goaltending is their biggest strength with Alexis Cournoyer having a strong year. It’d be nice to see Cornell go far, but Denver is Denver and it’s hard to pick against them these days. The Pioneers prevail 4-2.
Regional Final
Western Michigan vs. Denver
The last time these two tangled on the national stage was in last year’s Frozen Four where Western won in double overtime (they also won the NCHC championship the same way last year). Will it be a good game? Indeed. Will it be another marathon? I don’t think so. It’s an even year, so I want to pick Denver as the Pioneers made me regret it in 2022 and 2024. However, I think Western is just better and it makes it to Vegas. The Broncos win 3-2.
Albany (N.Y.) Regional
No. 1 seed Michigan vs. No. 4 Bentley
We’ve reached the mismatch of the tournament as the overall top seeded Wolverines take on the 16th-seeded Falcons. A team stacked with NHL talent against the Atlantic Hockey champion. Michigan was dueling with UND and rival MSU for the overall top seed, but it took the top spot under the new NPI format that replaced the longtime Pairwise rankings. Not surprisingly, the Wolverines are stacked offensively as they have a Hobey Baker finalist in T.J. Hughes along with fellow star Michael Hage and leading goal scorer Will Horcoff. They’re also strong in net with Jack Ivankovic, so Michigan going to be a tough matchup. The Falcons are a solid team with three 30-point scorers and a 41-point man in Jake Black, but I liked their chances better last year against Boston College than I do against Michigan. The Wolverines move on 6-2.
No. 2 Minnesota Duluth vs. No. 3 Penn State
At the start of the year, a lot of people assumed that as soon as the Nittany Lions added NHL prospect Gavin McKenna to their lineup that a national title was inevitable. As good as McKenna has been (he is a Hobey finalist), Penn State has been a little underwhelming this year after a Frozen Four appearance last year. Despite that, they’re still very good thansk to 40-point man Matt DiMarsico and 38-pointer Aiden Fink. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are back for the first time in four years and that’s nice to see. Duluth might not get the hype like the Nittany Lions do, but it’s got Hobey finalist Max Plante, Zam Plante and Jayson Shaugabay, all of whom have 40 points or more. Adam Gajan is also a good goalie, so UMD is clearly back on the right track as a program. I’m going with the Bulldogs here. UMD wins 5-3.
Regional Final
Michigan vs. Minnesota Duluth
This is a tough call as Michigan is obviously loaded, but UMD is one of the few teams that can keep pace with them. They’re also equal when it comes to netminders, so for me, this is a coin flip. When it comes to close matchups like this, I go with who I trust more. Basically, I don’t trust Big Ten teams in the tournament, and I do trust NCHC teams. As a result, UMD makes it back to the Frozen Four for the first time since 2021. The Bulldogs win 4-3.